Briefing from Bruce – December 2025

Imagine receiving a tax bill for income that never made its way into your bank account. It sounds like a mistake, but it’s not.

This is the result of phantom income. It’s one of the most misunderstood risks in certain investment structures, and it shouldn’t be ignored because it can have consequences when your tax advisor prepares your tax return.

Yet, it’s a very real phenomenon that can catch even seasoned investors off guard. You owe income tax on earnings that were allocated to you on paper but never distributed in cash.

For investors in various partnerships, LLCs, private equity funds, or real estate ventures, this issue is common. Profits may be reinvested or retained by the entity, but the IRS still considers your share taxable.

Let’s put it another way. Phantom income occurs when tax law treats your earnings as taxable to you, even though the cash stays in the business or remains neatly tucked inside your investment.

So, let’s look at some situations that could exacerbate your tax bill without providing the cash liquidity to pay Uncle Sam.

As always, when it comes to taxes, feel free to reach out to us with any questions or consult your tax advisor for guidance.

Seven prime examples

Phantom income can creep onto our tax return in various ways, creating an unexpected strain on cash flow and financial planning.

1. Open-ended mutual funds. Mutual funds typically pay dividends regularly, whether that be monthly, quarterly, or annually. If accumulated by an actively managed fund, it also distributes capital gains, both long- and short-term, to its shareholders.

But what if you, as a shareholder, reinvest dividends and capital gains? While reinvesting payouts are an important component of building long-term wealth, if the fund is held in a taxable account, you will receive Form 1099, and you’ll need to report the income to the IRS, which can result in a tax liability.

2. Debt forgiveness. If a lender erases a debt that you owe, the IRS often sees that as taxable income, even though you didn’t receive cash.

Think about it: If debt on real estate, a student loan, or a credit card balance gets forgiven, that canceled amount may wind up as “phantom income” on your tax return.

In most cases, the lender will send you a Form 1099-C, which reports the forgiven debt as income. That means you could owe taxes on money you received in the initial loan that was forgiven by the lender.

3. A zero-coupon bond. A zero-coupon bond is sold at a steep discount and matures at face value. It doesn’t pay a regular coupon, so “interest” is effectively compounded and paid in a single lump sum at maturity.

Yet, the IRS treats the accrued interest as taxable income each year, and you will receive a Form 1099-OID with the computed coupon each year, even though you never received a cash payment.

4. Something similar happens with TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), but with a twist.

TIPS are bonds designed to protect the bondholder from higher inflation. If the principal is adjusted upward for inflation, that increase is considered taxable income—you are presented with a tax bill if held in a taxable account—in the year it occurs, even if you don’t receive the cash until maturity or sale of the bond.

In summary, TIPS provide regular coupon payments. Still, they may also create phantom income for taxes because any inflation adjustment to principal is taxable each year, even though you don’t receive that extra principal until maturity or sale.

5. Non-cash compensation. We intuitively understand that our wages and salaries are subject to taxes. But what about those perks that add to compensation?

Health benefits for your partner (non-spouse), a house or apartment that’s paid for by your company, a company car, or employer-paid life insurance may be viewed as taxable income by the IRS.

6. Limited partnerships. If you’re a limited partner in a pass-through entity like a partnership, here’s something that can catch you off guard when tax time rolls around.

You might owe taxes on profits allocated to you even if the business didn’t send you a cash distribution. Why? Because the IRS taxes you based on your share of the profits, even though they were not paid out as actual cash distributions. These are recorded on Schedule K-1.

7. Private equity and law firms. If you’re a business owner or partner in a firm, your operating or partnership agreement usually spells out how profits and losses are allocated for tax purposes. Here’s the catch: Those allocations count as income on your tax return, even if you didn’t actually receive any cash.

Taking steps to minimize phantom income and the tax bite

In short, don’t rule out investments that generate phantom income. They may fit well in your portfolio and help you move toward your financial goals.

Just remember: A tax bill could be lurking in the background. The key is preparation.

If you have specific questions, we’d be happy to address your concerns, or we’d love to hear your thoughts. As we highlighted above, also feel free to reach out to your tax advisor.

November ekes out a gain

While the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped last month, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 shook off a modest mid-month decline to notch their seventh consecutive monthly advance, according to MarketWatch.

Key Index Returns
	MTD %	YTD %
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.3	12.2
Nasdaq Composite	-1.5	21.0
S&P 500 Index	0.1	16.5
Russell 2000 Index	0.8	12.1
MSCI World ex-USA**	0.9	24.9
MSCI Emerging Markets**	-2.5	27.1
Bloomberg US Agg Total Return	0.6	7.5

Source: Wall Street Journal, MSCI.com, Bloomberg, MarketWatch
MTD returns: October 31, 2025–November 28, 2025
YTD returns: December 31, 2024–November 28, 2025
**in US dollars

What happened during that mid-month dip? Over six trading days, the S&P 500 Index declined by a modest 4.6% amid fears that the AI boom could lead to an AI bust.

Let’s start with a big-picture view. Driven by surging demand for computing power, McKinsey & Company projects that global investment in data centers could reach $6.7 trillion by 2030.

But forecasts are never set in stone, and forecasts vary widely, according to McKinsey.

Last month, high valuations for AI-focused technology companies came under the microscope, and market volatility, while still subdued, picked up.

But let’s be real, too. Forecasts aren’t guarantees, and visibility beyond the short term is limited, as the pace of AI innovation makes future demand hard to pin down. As McKinsey noted, “A lack of clarity about future demand makes precise investment calculations difficult.”

In part, massive capital expenditures are raising red flags. This year alone, major tech firms plan to pour about $400 billion into AI efforts, according to The Wall Street Journal. And they say it isn’t enough amid soaring demand for their products.

Given the huge outlays, it’s still unclear when these companies might see meaningful returns. Moreover, many of the biggest players are now tapping debt markets to fund cloud and AI projects, a notable shift from their general reliance on cash reserves.

And then there’s OpenAI, the privately held powerhouse behind ChatGPT. It’s a central figure in the AI boom, but investors worry it might be over-leveraged, over-committed, and overvalued. Its business model seems to depend on unbridled optimism in capital markets to sustain its need for cash as it ramps up capacity to meet demand.

With huge spending plans and mounting losses that may roll into 2029 or 2030, OpenAI seems to be a risky bet, according to some folks, even as it remains one of the most influential players shaping the future of AI.

Yet, others argue that concerns are overblown.

Revenues at OpenAI are rising quickly—driven by paid subscriptions to ChatGPT—and enterprise adoption is strong. Moreover, OpenAI has deep ties to the world’s largest technology firms, and it is beginning to diversify beyond ChatGPT.

In summary

Bull case: OpenAI could become the backbone of global AI, driving massive revenue growth while using strategic partnerships to keep costs under control.

Bear case: Spending might spiral beyond returns, and governance problems could flare up. If competition heats up or valuations drop, OpenAI could face a serious financial strain.

The Fed: Words move markets

Yet, as quickly as the modest bout of volatility flared up, stocks rallied into the end of the month after a Fed official hinted that another rate cut was in the pipeline.

When we highlight actions by the Federal Reserve, we rarely reach beyond Fed Chief Jay Powell. Anything else is, well, too wonky and too granular in our view.

But the president of the influential Federal Reserve Bank of New York hinted that at least one more rate cut is on the way, and that reignited the rally.

What did he say? “I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate…” That’s all it took.

Let’s decipher. “Adjustment” is FedSpeak for a quarter-point rate cut, and “near term” was taken by investors to mean December.

Why did one speech from an influential regional Fed president move markets so dramatically and remove the spotlight from AI? It’s hard to say for sure, and we can only speculate, but odds are he wouldn’t have floated a December rate cut without Powell’stacit approval.

I trust you have found this review informative and helpful. If you have any questions or would like to discuss any other topics, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me or any member of our team.

Thank you for choosing us as your financial advisor. We are truly honored by your trust and remain committed to serving you with integrity and care.

Bruce Elfenbein

Certified Financial Fiduciary ®️